🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still