A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
